Thursday 23 February 2012

SuperCoach Herald Sun's advice review - Collingwood

Every year the Herald Sun releases the little black book giving advice on who to buy and who to avoid. I will point out some of the ones they overlooked and errors they made while also offering my own suggestions. Of course I will praise the decisions that I agree with and why I agree with them.


Collingwood

Collingwood, the highest scoring team for SuperCoach and finished second to Geelong. There has been very little change to the list with the only John McCarthy and Leon Davis being the biggest outs. From that they gained Marty Clarke who can play and will get a game initially especially if he has a great preseason. 2012 should be more of the same with the 'Woods contending for not only the flag but also contending for the top rank Supercoach side.


The Superstar

Scott Pendlebury - Genuine unlucky to not win the Brownlow. Last season he was the highest averaging player and comes with the most expensive price tag but make no mistake he is worth every cent. He averaged 129 over the season and only dropped below 100 (95 v Carlton) once during the season. Expect that average to maintain at least and do not be scared to slap the captain on him since he just keeps scoring over 100. The definition of consistency and reliable he should be one of your first picked. Oh and put some money on him for the Brownlow.

Bank 'Em

Dane Swan - Last season's Brownlow medalist averaged 122ppg and this marked his third consecutive season of averaging at least 120. While this sounds impressive what makes it even more impressive is that during the middle stages of last season he was carrying an injury which means that his average was weighed down a little bit by this. A goal kicking midfielder he scored 30 goals last season and averaged 31 disposals. A quiet game for this bloke is 20 touches and two goals. Jump on and watch him rack up the points.

Dale Thomas - Finally stepped up last season finally breaking the 100ppg. barrier for the first time. It looks like he is becoming the player everyone knew he was capable of being. There is every chance of him stepping that average to over 115ppg since he is an elite ball winner in the competition and has the highest kick to handball ratio at Collingwood. All this leads to big points and with that another increase in average. Will be a great point of difference for a midfield that will comprise of one or both of Swan and Pendlebury.

Buy 'Em

Marty Clarke - When Marty Clarke first broke into the Collingwood side he was the perfect rookie downgrade scoring well and playing regularly. Fast forward to the end of 2009, Clarke left to go back Ireland. Fast forward to the start of the 2012 season Clarke came back into the Collingwood side and looks set to slot into Leon Davis vacated role. The only concern is that he will have to start from the bottom or get home sick. If he looks likely in the preseason jump on that like a fat kid on cake.

Alan Didak - No, No, No. Many a negative in this. Firstly he is getting extremely close to 30, secondly he is prone to a bad decision, thirdly he was carrying and a still is carrying an injury. Granted in '09 and '10 he averaged over 100 but in 2011 he did not score over 100 once for the whole season. While he can bounce back I highly doubt it. Not the worst pick but I think there is much better out there.

Suggested Player

Steele Sidebottom - He will become a premium this season. Coming into his fourth season he is a prime candidate for a breakout season. Additionally he is slated for more midfield time which means more possessions. Now consider this, last season he was ranked as elite for his kick ratings. This translates to when he hits the target by foot he will score points. With brilliant kicking, more midfield time and entering his fourth season there are very strong signs to suggest that he will become a premium this season.

Bury 'Em

Darren Jolly - Although he is an important player for Collingwood as their best ruck from a SuperCoach perspective he is a spent force. At the age of 30 he is now more prone to injuries as 2011 was proof. Further hurting his case is that there are a plethora of premium ruck options as such going players that might provide a bit of value is now all but an exercise in futility. Yes he is important for Collingwood but not for SuperCoach.

Ben Reid - Although this makes sense as he is a lockdown key defender I am going against this call. Firstly with Brown back it should mean less pressure on him and with the big man squeeze in the backline and Macaffer's injury in the forward line there is a good chance that he will rotate through the forward line at some point. Furthermore he was touted as playing on the wing at some stage. He can play and I think writing him off at this stage is very dangerous since he can play. With the potential for more variety in his role this season the 'Bury him' tag is very harsh indeed.

Suggested Player

Nathan Brown - He should play Reid's role this year. Key back playing on the main key forward this season Brown is at a heavily reduced price coming back from injury. But lets look at how he scored before his injury in 2011. His highest average was 62 so he will make you some half decent coin but that is it. With the lock down roles that go hand in hand with his position he will sacrifice his own game for the Collingwood cause. Yes he will play but how much will he average and will he make enough coin to justify not picking a rookie? I highly doubt and for me that is why he should be given the 'bury him' tag.

Wednesday 22 February 2012

SuperCoach Herald Sun's advice review - Carlton

Every year the Herald Sun releases the little black book giving advice on who to buy and who to avoid. I will point out some of the ones they overlooked and errors they made while also offering my own suggestions. Of course I will praise the decisions that I agree with and why I agree with them.


Carlton

Carlton won its first final in about 10 years and will look to go into the top 4 this season. In terms of SuperCoach the Blues, were already top 4 producing some brilliant rookies in Duigan and Curnow as well as premiums in Gibbs, Murphy and Judd. This season they are set to jump to another level which can only mean positive things for their SuperCoach output.

The Superstar
Marc Murphy - The number 1 draft from 2005 averaged 118ppg. last season and is officially the number 1 player at Carlton. At the age of 24 he is hitting his straps and will continue to be an elite player. Has every chance of also becoming the highest scoring player this season. To further underline this he is extremely consistent. Consider that over the past two seasons he has scored below 80 only twice. Absolute Superstar.

Bank 'Em
Chris Judd - We all know what this bloke can do. Two brownlows, a premiership captain and an absolute SuperCoach freak. Ultra consistent he has averaged over 110ppg, for the last four seasons and at the age of 28 will continue on his high scoring. Want something safe that will average 115+ for the season. Chris Judd is your man.

Heath Scotland - Remember when he was struggling to get a game for Collingwood almost a decade ago? I do and look at him now. Easily the best defender besides Goddard in SuperCoach last season and recorded the sixth highest kicking effeciency of the top 30 ball winners last season. That indicates two things firstly, the Blues want the ball in his hands and secondly he can use the ball. All this leads to good SuperCoach scores.

Buy 'Em
Paul Bower -Injury curtailed his lead up to 2011 and it went down hill from there. Only playing 3 games last season and averaging 29 means he is a very big discount price. He will not be a keeper by any stretch of the imagination but will make some handy coin which you can use for future upgrades. If he looks like getting a game come round 1 definitely jump on since he can read the player and score points.

Matthew Kruezer - While not a bad pick especially if you are looking to scrimp some coin for another player there is a saying, "you pay for what you get". It applies here, with a plethora of ruck options to choose from and with very little previous record compared to Cox, Mumford and co. it is very hard to justify picking Kruezer as a 2nd ruckman just to save a few coins especially when you could probably cut someone else instead. Going to be a great player but hard to justify with other ruck options that are available this season.


Suggested Player
Bryce Gibbs - Want a point of difference from people who pick Judd and Murphy? Gibbs could be your man. A year younger than Murphy and also a number 1 draft pick he showed he can play and can find the ball. Last season  he was the main link player for the Blues which resulted into him having a career high impact on the scoreboard last season. At his current age he will improve further and is every chance of raising that average to 110-115 ppg this season. Jump on especially if you want a point of difference.



Bury 'Em
Jeff Garlett and Eddie Betts - Although both of these players are extremely good at their role you have to remember what their role is: a small forward. Small forwards traditionally never average in the upper echelon of SuperCoach scores and I find it hard to see it coming here. Furthermore they are highly inconsistent so when they run cold it is not pretty. You can enjoy the highs that come with a good game but when you see those low scores you will panic and make a bad decision. Save yourself the pain and pick someone consistent.


Jarrad Waite - Although logically this makes sense in terms of him being injury prone and fairly inconsistent it would be unfair to write off someone with his immense ability and scoring potential. One day when he puts it altogether he will average close to 100 but the biggest question is whether or not that will happen. Take a brave perosn to pick him but burying him is very harsh.


Suggested Player
Brock McLean - Going to sound like a broken record, but it is disappointing to see Brock like this. At the age of 26 it looks like the game has gone past him and finding a spot in the Blues midfield with the emergence and improvement of Scotland, Curnow, Lucas and Robinson. This all leads to limited midfield time in the firsts and ends with him playing the twos. Last season he dominated the VFL but unfortunately was not enough to get the call up enough and as we all know you don't score SuperCoach points in the VFL.

Tuesday 21 February 2012

SuperCoach Herald Sun's advice review - Brisbane

Every year the Herald Sun releases the little black book giving advice on who to buy and who to avoid. I will point out some of the ones they overlooked and errors they made while also offering my own suggestions. Of course I will praise the decisions that I agree with and why I agree with them.

Brisbane

After what can only be described as a horror year for the young Brisbane Lions on and off the field they have started the long road back towards the finals. After risking it all picking up players through trading they have lost Daniel Bradshaw, Lachie Henderson and Michael Rischitelli as a direct consequence of the Brendan Fevola trade and to cap it all off they got rid of Fevola for mucking up. Injuries to key players, namely Johnathon Brown, has not helped them either. This has forced the Lions to blood youngsters which is excellent news for SuperCoach players everywhere, unfortunately their coach is Michael Voss who is as predictable as a roulette wheel.

The Star
Tom Rockliff - What is not to like about this kid? Over the past two seasons he has averaged 100ppg (last season was 113) and at the age of 22 that will continue to rise. To cap it off he does not share the buy with Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton or Hawthorn the highest scoring SuperCoach sides. So much to like and to cap it off since he is in the Brisbane side he will be a great point of difference and relatively unique. Will at the very worst maintain his average and at the best will become a 125ppg player. Strongly consider.

Bank 'Em
Jack Redden - Already wrote about him so I will keep this pretty short. Unknown outside of Queensland, same byes as Rockliff (duh!) and is a tackling machine. Like Rockliff he will improve and should become at least a 115ppg. player. Strongly consider especially as a further point of difference, especially if you believe he will outscore Rockliff.

Matthew Leuenberger - After his breakout season in 2011, the 'Berger is poised to step his game up to another level. The second half of last season he dominated averaging the second most points for all ruckman in the process improving his hitouts to advantage, his disposal effeciency and winning ruck contests. Now that he has done it for half of a season it seems inevitable that he will do it for the other half of a season. Jump on is all I can say.

Buy 'Em
Johnathon Brown - Cheap and we all know what he is capable of when he is on the park. Main problem with that is that he is a magnet for injuries. Definitely a risk but there is tremendous value at his price. One positive is that he does not have a history of recurring injuries. Definitely some value and if he fits into your forward line definitely jump on.

Dayne Zorko - Won 4 consecutive best and fairests in the AFLQ (now the NEAFL). A mature age rookie who despite his size should play in round 1 if he is fit. Named as a mid-fwd means that there is greater flexibility involved when picking him. The main downside to him (if there is one) is that his coach is Michael Voss who, if last season is any guide, plays his rookies at odd times or just does not play at all.

Bury 'Em
Josh Drummond - Fair call considering he like Brown is constantly injured but unlike Brown, Drummond's injuries are recurring. In the past two seasons he has played 14 games, although he can kick being one of the leagues most accurate kicks in the competition. Also we know what he is capable of averaging 96 when playing a whole season (well 20 games out of 22). When weighing up the postives and negatives just think, would it not be easier to pick Corey Enright and getting 91 ppg. without the stress.

Simon Black - Logically a great call. Well over 30 and should get less midfield time with Rich, Redden, Rockliff getting better but he still knows how to find it. The only downside is that his disposal efficiency  is pretty low which hurts his scores.  On merit I cannot though since he can still play and will produce the great games also I am looking through this with rose tinted glasses.

Suggested Player
Jared Polec - Firstly let me start off by saying yes this kid can play and should be an absolute star in the future. The problem is that Michael Voss, based on last season, seems intent on slow playing this guy giving him limited game time and that does not translate to good scores. Granted he was injured as well but if he could not get a game last season in the Brisbane side while fit (played 3 games from rounds 3 to 5), I am not confident of it happening this season.

Wednesday 15 February 2012

SuperCoach Herald Sun's advice review - Adelaide

Every year the Herald Sun releases the little black book giving advice on who to buy and who to avoid. I will point out some of the ones they overlooked and errors they made while also offering my own suggestions. Of course I will praise the decisions that I agree with and why I agree with them.

This will cover Adelaide through to Western Bulldogs, each day I will cover a team or two.


Adelaide


Adelaide promised much last season but by the end of the season they finished with a new coach, the hard nosed Brenton Sanderson. This season they will look to dominate the contested ball and stoppages something which they were horrible at last season (ranking 16th and 17th in the compeition last season). Amazingly they had Scott Thompson who cleared 136 stoppages which is 47 more than any other Adelaide player. Essentially they are a one man show, hopefully that changes this season.



The Star

Scott Thompson - Was there any doubt? Easily the best midfielder in the Adelaide team and due to low popularity will provide you with a handy unique option and point of difference for your midfield. Will average 115 ppg, which is exactly what you want from a midfielder and is durable and consistent to boot. Worth every cent.


Bank 'Em

Sam Jacobs - Already hyped him up in a previous post so I will not repeat myself. With the plethora of ruck options this season he is a great pick. To go with that there are no rucks at Adelaide which means he will have his game time maximised.


Nathan Van Berlo - Which one will turn up? The one that played under Neil Craig and always looked promising or the one that played under Mark Bickley and was a machine. Always averages about 80-90 ppg. but has the potential to break out. Similar to Graham Johncock in which they threaten to become a consistant elite player but just don't.


Buy 'Em

Patrick Dangerfield - Could this year be his year? Everyone knows what he is capable of but can he put it together. Very tempting in terms of price and with very few bye clashes in the forward line must be strongly considered. Hard to fault this pick.


Jason Porplyzia - Unlike Dangerfield this is not an issue of whether or not it will be his year but whether or not he will get onto the park. Last season he lasted the best part of five minutes before hurting his shoulder again. This has caused his price discount but considering what he is capable of (86 and 87 in '08-'09) he is definitely worth it. The only concern is whether or not he will hurt his shoulder or any other body part.


Bury 'Em


Chris Knights - I had him last year and I could not agree more with this. Could not shake injuries last season nor find any form. Add to that he was very inconsistent meant having him out there was just infuriating. Can play but after last season I will wait until I see it from a SuperCoach perspective.


Kurt Tippet - Very harsh call, but his track record suggest this is warranted. Entering his fifth season in the system as a key position player means that the time is now for him to peak and fulfill his potential. Strongly consider if you have the patience and actually believe he can deliver.

Suggested Option

Shaun McKernan - All the rage this time last year did not deliver for his owners. Lowest kick rating in the league and furthermore is behind a few blokes in the pecking order. When he does play it is as a lock down key position player. What does all this lead to: When he does play he will not score well. The only thing he has going for is the dual Ruck and Forward position but even that is overrated this season.

Herald Sun Review: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/adelaide-crows-supercoach-2012-preview/story-fn88c7kz-1226251517255

Wednesday 1 February 2012

Fantasy Football 2012 - SuperCoach Preseason


It is that time of the year where footy fanatics all over the country start planning for the upcoming AFL season and with that the upcoming fantasy football season. This season with the introduction of Greater Western Sydney sees the competition expand to 18 teams, which means a change to how the byes and the fixture are done. Before the start of the season, a finalised team will be required to have selected 30 players and remain under the salary cap, $10 million for SuperCoach. This requires players to select a mix of champions, rookies and players in between to make up their squad. Furthermore a squad of 30 needs to fit within the parameters:
  •   Nine defenders;
  •   Eight midfielders;
  •   Four ruckman;
  •   Nine forwards.
After your squad fits the following parameters and is under the salary cap you pick 22 players, a captain, vice captain and three emergencies. The 22 players along with the captain, who scores double points, makes up your score for the round. Emergencies only come into play when you have a player not playing and an emergency selected in the corresponding. The vice captain only comes into play when your captain is not playing for the round. At the end of the round you can change all of this. The aim of fantasy football is to get the highest score possible each round and build up a score as a high as possible for the whole season.

For the 2012 season the main changes for this season for both Supercoach and Dreamteam are:
  •  Trades are up to 24 now, with two per round maximum and during the bye rounds (11-13) it is three trades maximum.
  •  Squad sizes are back to 30 with an extra player lost from the defender, midfield and forward lines compared to last season.
  •  Reversible trades until lock out (The Heath Shaw rule)
  •  Leagues start in round three, a week earlier than previous years.
  •  League games will be played during the bye weeks. 
  •  Byes are done over three rounds instead across the whole season. Six teams each round have a bye.
  •  Increased trading flexibility.
The Byes Situation

Let me start of by saying that you will cop a zero at some point during this season’s bye period, the only way to avoid involves picking Scott Lycett, a farcical amount of luck and trading a midfielder from the third bye group (which has very few rookies) for a midfielder in the first or second bye group. Below is how the bye groups looks for season 2012.

Round 11
Round 12
Round 13
Adelaide
Collingwood
Carlton
Brisbane
Essendon
Gold Coast
Greater Western Sydney
Fremantle
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Geelong
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Melbourne
Richmond
Western Bulldogs
Sydney
St Kilda

 As I said before you will more than likely cop a zero at some point during the bye period. The main key to getting through with minimal damage is planning your premiums (keepers) to make sure that no more than two of them are in the same bye group for each line. For example picking Gary Ablett, Marc Murphy and Sam Mitchell would be asking for trouble since they all fall within the same bye group.

The second key to getting through the bye thing is using all three of your and being thoughtful with them as trades this season come with more flexibility attached to them. Rookies playing their second or third game around this period will play a big part in how people trade as well as how people deal with the byes.

Lastly, as I have said before you will need plenty of luck throughout the season to do well but more importantly plenty of luck to get through the bye periods for seasons relatively unscathed.

Scoring in Supercoach

The main motto for Supercoach is quality over quantity.

Scoring in Supercoach is done through the Champion Data ranking system that measures how effective a player is during a game. Every game of football under the Champion Data system gives out approximately 3,300 points and gives players a share of them based on how influential they were during the game giving weighting to key periods within the game. Further weighting is giving to contested stats over uncontested stats as well as gaining possession of the ball from the opposition. Due to Supercoach rewarding quality, it means that there are situations where a player can gain a negative score if they dispose of the ball poorly and gives away free kicks. In the past, it has been reported that Champion Data uses approximately 50 variables to determine a player’s score. This underlines how complex Supercoach can be but also how satisfying it is to get it right.

Selection Options

Below are some selection option which should be given consideration in teams as to whether or not they should be picked. Firstly, I could have just said pick Scott Pendlebury, Gary Ablett and Nick Dal Santo and told myself that I have done a good job but those are obvious choices and should always be given plenty of consideration. Alternatively, I could have said to avoid Chris Tarrant, Darren Glass and Matthew Lobbe, but just as obvious, as the above were to be considered the three I have just mentioned should never be mentioned.

Players to consider

Due to various factors, these players do not get much consideration in selection from people making their Supercoach team.

Jack Redden – He barely rates a mention outside of Queensland but he is every bit as good as Rockliff. At 21 and into his fourth year in the AFL system he is set to jump up another level again. Last season he averaged 7.5 tackles a game and having the third highest amount of pressure acts of all players during the season. All this equates to Redden being able to score well without having to have a huge amount of disposals. Additionally, he will not attract taggers due to Black and Rockliff having the attention of the opposition. Finally, he falls within the first group of byes that do not conflict with teams such as Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn where the popular midfielders are.

Michael Hurley – He has been likened to Wayne Carey and for years, he has threatened to break out. This year will be his year. Entering his fourth year in the AFL system and being part of the up and coming Essendon side means that he will get more of the ball coming to him. He can take a contested mark and kick a goal, which means that he will rack up points. His byes are his only negative with them clashing with Collingwood, Fremantle and Geelong, which all have fantasy relevant forwards.

Sam Jacobs – Came to Adelaide from Carlton last season and improved his numbers dramatically. Another coming into his fourth year into the system his numbers will jump again. Additionally there are no ruckman that can take game time off him. This means that he will have maximum opportunity to score points. Unfortunately, his byes clash with North Melbourne and Brisbane who both have popular ruckman but as a unique pick, he could provide a big point of difference throughout the season.

The DT/SC Difference

With the difference in scoring methods between Dreamteam and Supercoach there will be different scores for each player for every game. Across the season, there will be trends that suggest a player will score and average significantly higher in Dreamteam than they would in Supercoach. Below are some players that have score significantly higher in Supercoach over the Dreamteam and offering an explanation as to why this happens.
           
Shane Mumford – Last season he had a 22 point differential between his Supercoach and Dreamteam average. This was due to him being number one in the competition for hitouts to advantage, a highly regarded stat in Supercoach. Also 61 per cent of his disposals are contested which is another highly regarded stat in the Supercoach scoring system.

Sam Fisher – Last season he had a 15 point differential between his Supercoach and Dreamteam average. Last season he was ranked in the top ten for effective kicks and for intercepts off opposition disposal. Last season his role was also to play as a loose man in defence, which meant he had plenty of opportunity to intercept the ball and get a possession from that. Both of these are highly regarded in Supercoach that leads to high scores.