Every year the Herald Sun releases the little black book giving advice on who to buy and who to avoid. I will point out some of the ones they overlooked and errors they made while also offering my own suggestions. Of course I will praise the decisions that I agree with and why I agree with them.
Hawthorn
In my mind this team is the premiership favourite and based on their list statistically I am right. Of all the teams in the AFL they have the highest number a Elite and Above Average players and with with that a core of 20-24 years olds ready to take over from the likes of Luke Hodge and Sam Mitchell. Expect Hawthorn to provide a lot of high scoring premiums but be very light on rookies mostly because breaking into the Hawthorn line up will be a monumental task for an 18 year old entering the system.
The Superstar
Sam Mitchell - First off, Sam Mitchell is a champion player and easily the most consistent player for SuperCoach on the Hawthorn list. Last season he was the highest averaging player and as a master of extracting the ball (clearances and hardball gets means that he will again be a high scoring player in 2012. The biggest downside is that he has a low ceiling rarely getting a huge score which means that if you have him you may not be gaining a lot by it. To be honest it is not a bad downside but it means that unlike in previous years Mitchell isn't a must have first up due to byes and more options being available.
Suggested Player
Lance Franklin - The best forward pick in the competition and it is not even close. On his best day he can tear opposition apart with complete ease. In previous years he has had games where he gets completely shut out but with the amount of forwards in the Hawthorn team it will now allow Franklin to move into the midfield. This means his ceiling score will stay the same but his floor (bottom score) will increase. This means he will be harder to get if you don't start with him. Additionally if you do not have him and he rips out a few 150+ scores you will be right behind 8-ball. He is a lock and the best Supercoach player in the Hawthorn team.
Bank 'Em
Luke Hodge - The poster boy for toughness in the AFL Hodge played through injury to post an average of approximately 105. The Hawthorn skipper as such present value if you can work him in around the bye structure which he shares with Gold Coast (Ablett), Carlton (Murphy, Judd, Gibbs) and St Kilda (Dal Santo). Due to him being underpriced if you are you looking for a cheap M4 or M5 or to cut some cash for elsewhere Hodge presents a very attractive option as you know he is tough as nails and will play 22 games no matter what.
Lance Franklin - As above
Suggested Player
Sam Mitchell - As above
Buy 'Em
Alex Woodward - Unfortunately for the youngster he is out for the season with a broken leg, continuting the curse of number 36 at Hawthorn. Maybe next season he will be fit and a good pick.
Suggested Player
Cyril Rioli - One of the most exciting players in the AFL when he is on the park. He is made for Supercoach doing key things and key times as well as applying both offensive and defensive pressure. If he stay on the park he could be a very unique pick since alot of people will be scared off by his history of injuries as well as sharing a bye with Lance Franklin.
Jordan Lewis - Another midfielder that was given the Mid/Def MPP this season but unlike the others this one does not present value. This is because he shares the bye with Franklin and Rioli (plus Richmond [D.Martin]) and he has a much lower scoring ceiling than the previously mentioned. If that was not enough he also plays as a defensive forward, meaning he does not need to get the ball and to cap it off, odds are he will get reported. Avoid since there are better options.
Suggested Player
David Hale - Generally I don't pick key forwards but this one is different. Torn it up this preseason as the stand alone ruck due to injuries he will be a great pick for the first half of the year until Hawthorn gets some players back. Should spend a lot of time on the ground during that time either as a ruck or a resting forward. Expect him to average 90+ for the first half of the year and based at his price is definite value. Jump on if you are not going for two ruck premiums.
Bury 'Em
Cameron Bruce - 32, ex-Melbourne player and lucky to be on the Hawthorn list at this point let alone their best 22. No value in picking him which is sad because he was a champion.
Xavier Ellis - So so talented that I cannot write him off, as much as logic says I should. If he cements a spot in the Hawks best 22, especially running off the half-back line he is a huge chance to return to his 2008 form and go on from there. So much upside considering what he is capable of I would consider giving him one more chance. If you are feeling brave.
Suggested Player
Shaun Burgoyne - Very similar to James Bartel. Can play any role and is an elite player but for fantasy scoring that uncertainty is a very bad thing. One week he might be a midfielder and dominate but the next he might be a lock down defender and do nothing SC wise. Obvious champion and key player in the Hawthorn side but due to uncertainty you should avoid him in Supercoach.
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